How to pick up on weak signals when you have imperfect information

We’re going through weird times right now. The environment around us has changed and there’s more ambiguity.

Which brings me to the topic of plants.

Plants are exciting (and frustrating) for two reasons:

1. There’s no instant gratification. When you move a plant to a sunnier spot near the biggest window in your home, you can’t tell immediately if the plant likes this. You won’t see a difference until a week or two later. Sometimes you won’t see results until the next month.

2. Some solutions are literally at odds with each other. In most situations, the quality of your decisions lands on a spectrum. “In hindsight, that wasn’t the smartest move. But it also wasn’t the worst idea.”

But when your monstera leaf turns yellow...

(a) There was too much water

(b) There was not enough water

So you should either water it… Or definitely NOT water it.

I don’t know about you, but that is confusing and unsettling. The same clue (yellow leaf) could have a completely different root cause (pun intended).

What should you do in ambiguous situations like this?

Practice picking up on weak signals. Look for other non-obvious context clues.

If level 1 is saying “the plant needs more or less water”...

Then level 2 is realizing there are other clues you haven’t even take into account yet: 

• Was this plant moved recently? → Shock can cause leaves to yellow.

• When was the last time you watered? → If you’ve been watering often and really pouring it in, it’s different than if you’ve been watering sparingly.

• How much sun does the plant get? → It might not be getting enough sun.

• Are there pests? → It might be sucking nutrients from leaves.

• How humid or dry is the room it’s in? → If the room is really dry and warm, water evaporates faster.

All of these are more clues to help you figure out what to do.

The right thing to do isn’t always obvious, absolute, or prescriptive. And you won’t know immediately if it works.

For better or for worse, most interesting opportunities don’t have a clear answer. There’s not a clear path to success. If they did, the market would be saturated and you would be working on something else.

Embrace the indirect nature of the process. Trust your best judgment, stay alert on feedback, and keep improving your intuition.